Ryan Wilson: Which Penguin poised for biggest jump? Which Penguin poised for biggest jump?

What do we think the Pens PP is gonna look like this year? I’m hoping for the reverse Washington look.

Letang on the half wall
SiD down low
Guentzel in the bumper slot spot
Marino QBing
Geno on the other half wall waiting for the one timer

Sid, Letang, and Guentzel can work that triangle over there or Marino feeds Geno for the one timer.

What do we think the Pens PP is gonna look like this year? I’m hoping for the reverse Washington look.

Letang on the half wall
SiD down low
Guentzel in the bumper slot spot
Marino QBing
Geno on the other half wall waiting for the one timer

Sid, Letang, and Guentzel can work that triangle over there or Marino feeds Geno for the one timer.
- j.boyd919

Just not whatever we did last year.

Just not whatever we did last year.
- Victoro311

Yup

Kapanen. I think his offensive regression was overplayed. His goals dipped but his points/60 stayed the same. 3rd year in league, a cleaner chance to move up thw lineup and compete for PP time.

What do we think the Pens PP is gonna look like this year? I’m hoping for the reverse Washington look.

Letang on the half wall
SiD down low
Guentzel in the bumper slot spot
Marino QBing
Geno on the other half wall waiting for the one timer

Sid, Letang, and Guentzel can work that triangle over there or Marino feeds Geno for the one timer.
- j.boyd919

We'll see if Reirdon changes things, but early indications from Yohe said he's gotten from sources are Malkin, Sid, Letang in their same spots, Guentzel in front, Rust and Kapanen competing for the LW boards spot.

@Tojo:

Sounds like Sullivan has his fingerprints on the PP. Like 9 out of 10 digits...

I think Matheson could surprise positively a bit. Marino and Pettersson too. Not sure about Ceci.

I think Matheson could surprise positively a bit. Marino and Pettersson too. Not sure about Ceci.
- Barnaby36

Kapanen is the big one I could see on numbers, but guys like Pettersson, Blueger, and ZAR are also guys I think have another level they're capable of and are at points in their NHL experience where a breakout can still come in the next year or two.

Kapanen is the big one I could see on numbers, but guys like Pettersson, Blueger, and ZAR are also guys I think have another level they're capable of and are at points in their NHL experience where a breakout can still come in the next year or two.
- Tojo.

I can see Pettersson improving, but I'm not sure how much. I see him more fine-tuning parts of his game and just having a tighter game. I don't see his offensive game improving much.

Blueger I can see upping his offensive output.

ZAR? I think he's topped out at being a very good defensive player. He shoots like his stick weighs 100 pounds and skates in mud; I don't see those areas of his game getting much better. I'm sure if he gets his nose dirty around the net he can probably pot a few more goals, but that may be about it.

I think you're right about Kapanen. I'm most interested to see what kind of pace Rust can keep up if he plays 70+ games this year.

I can see Pettersson improving, but I'm not sure how much. I see him more fine-tuning parts of his game and just having a tighter game. I don't see his offensive game improving much.

Blueger I can see upping his offensive output.

ZAR? I think he's topped out at being a very good defensive player. He shoots like his stick weighs 100 pounds and skates in mud; I don't see those areas of his game getting much better. I'm sure if he gets his nose dirty around the net he can probably pot a few more goals, but that may be about it.

I think you're right about Kapanen. I'm most interested to see what kind of pace Rust can keep up if he plays 70+ games this year.
- Rinosaur

I pretty much agree on Pettersson. I think he can crack 30 points, but mostly I think that if experience cleans up his mistakes, he's just a solid all around defenseman.

Rust has to be the top regression candidate. I think he lands somewhere between what he's been and where he was last year, which is still a good player.

Ryan Wilson: Which Penguin poised for biggest jump?
Which Penguin poised for biggest jump?
- Ryan_Wilson

Jarry and Matheson are both going to be set up for career years. So them in my opinion.

I'm concerned that Marino could have a sophomore slump. It's pretty wild that the 11 point Harvard D somehow explodes into a 0.5ppg NHL D. I'd say he already made his jump. Hopefully he can maintain it.

Jarry and Matheson are both going to be set up for career years. So them in my opinion.

I'm concerned that Marino could have a sophomore slump. It's pretty wild that the 11 point Harvard D somehow explodes into a 0.5ppg NHL D. I'd say he already made his jump. Hopefully he can maintain it.
- bikeguy99

The MTL series was a small sample size, but Marino didn’t look to slip at all and that was what, a five month layoff? Again, small sample size, but I feel like we would have seen some sophomore regression there.

The MTL series was a small sample size, but Marino didn’t look to slip at all and that was what, a five month layoff? Again, small sample size, but I feel like we would have seen some sophomore regression there.
- Rinosaur

I didnt think Marino looked near as good in the Habs series as he did in the regular season. I could say that for a bunch of them, actually.

I didnt think Marino looked near as good in the Habs series as he did in the regular season. I could say that for a bunch of them, actually.
- MattStrat

As a unit they were awful, but I thought he picked up right where he left off.

I wonder if we'll see a story here about The Athletic's piece fancy stating the Penguins to be the #3 rated team in contract efficiency. It doesn't fall into the narrative that Rutherford is an awful GM though, so... probably not.

I wonder if we'll see a story here about The Athletic's piece fancy stating the Penguins to be the #3 rated team in contract efficiency. It doesn't fall into the narrative that Rutherford is an awful GM though, so... probably not.
- Hockeywiener

I didn't read that article, but I'm curious what metrics they used. If the quality of the player vs. the contract is not part of the equation then it's really a useless metric IMO.

There are definitely teams in the league who have committed far worse blunders in contracts, but there is more to it than that. I think there's too much nuance to take a metric like this too seriously.

What good is contract efficiency if you have poor quality players that you didn't need to have signed to longer term deals?

I didn't read that article, but I'm curious what metrics they used. If the quality of the player vs. the contract is not part of the equation then it's really a useless metric IMO.

There are definitely teams in the league who have committed far worse blunders in contracts, but there is more to it than that. I think there's too much nuance to take a metric like this too seriously.
- Rinosaur

It was a Dom Luszczyszyn article, so it had the goods. The take away is the Penguins have hardly any players expected to under perform their contract signed long term. Perfect for fielding a low cost, high drafting, rebuild in 3 years while remaining competitive in the short term.

I didn't read that article, but I'm curious what metrics they used. If the quality of the player vs. the contract is not part of the equation then it's really a useless metric IMO.

There are definitely teams in the league who have committed far worse blunders in contracts, but there is more to it than that. I think there's too much nuance to take a metric like this too seriously.
- Rinosaur

Each team was graded based on the surplus value they bring in per player (all dead money counts as one) as well as the average probability those deals will provide positive value. Both are based on a player’s age-adjusted projected win output according to GSVA and the uncertainty in that projection for future seasons, along with the cost of a win on the open market. How much each team spends to obtain those wins will also be graded.

The main goal is looking at what teams have on the books. What a player has already done holds no merit. They may have been worth their deal as a whole and been excellent value prior, but that may not matter going forward. Future value means age is exceptionally important in terms of grading each contract, with players peaking between the ages of 22-26 and declining afterward.

Surplus value will depend on term, where more years left offer a larger opportunity to compound value, good or bad. Positive value probability depends on the certainty of a player’s projection, which depends on the size of the sample the projection. Longer term means that uncertainty increases too.

Each contract was graded based on where a player’s combined surplus value and positive value probability fall on the following percentile scale. All contract and roster data is as of Nov. 3.

Guentzel and Rust are doing a ton of heavy lifting for us. The model also really likes Petterson, and likes Letang a bit less than id expect rating him, Petterson, and Riikola about equivalently. On defense, Matheson is our only bad contract. Ceci is expected to provide negative value but his contract is so small it doesn’t matter. On forwards, the model identifies Sceviour, Kapanen, and Tanev as providing negative value. But Tanev is the only one that barely wades into the bad contract territory with a C-.

Guentzel and Rust are doing a ton of heavy lifting for us. The model also really likes Petterson, and likes Letang a bit less than id expect rating him, Petterson, and Riikola about equivalently. On defense, Matheson is our only bad contract. Ceci is expected to provide negative value but his contract is so small it doesn’t matter. On forwards, the model identifies Sceviour, Kapanen, and Tanev as providing negative value. But Tanev is the only one that barely wades into the bad contract territory with a C-.
- Victoro311

It's really the opportunity cost of JR's choices that fails. Trading a player like Hornqvist who I felt should be moved, was moved to the detriment of the team rather the improvement of the team. Moving a player who could still help for an area where you already had personnel capable of providing solid play is a massive failure because a bigger hole was created.

I didn't read that article, but I'm curious what metrics they used. If the quality of the player vs. the contract is not part of the equation then it's really a useless metric IMO.

There are definitely teams in the league who have committed far worse blunders in contracts, but there is more to it than that. I think there's too much nuance to take a metric like this too seriously.

What good is contract efficiency if you have poor quality players that you didn't need to have signed to longer term deals?
- Rinosaur

It's just measuring how teams are doing at signing players. A lot of things aren't factored in like dead space, goaltending (which likely would help us), and rookie contracts. So Pettersson, who the model feels in underpaid by about 1M per year, helps us more now in these rankings than when he was cheap.

Matheson, who has the 9th worst contract, and Tanev, overpaid by about 10M over the rest of the contract, are the only 2 that really drag us down. Even Ceci is apparently overpaid by just 200k, which great if true.

Guys like Sid, Letang, Dumo, Zucker lose some value because they're projected to be overpaid in the last year of their deals.

Still Guentzel, 7th best contract, and Rust around 11M surplus value push us up. Sid and Malkin are still great value, Letang, Pettersson, and Riikola (apparently a 3M defensemen) give a lot of value though how we get that from Riikola when he barely plays is a mystery. McCann and ZAR are also projected to give over 2M surplus value, everyone else I think is within 1M plus or minus.

So cap management could be better in a few places, but when citing that as proof we're doomed, people probably aren't figuring in all the value deals or all the bad deals elsewhere.

It's really the opportunity cost of JR's choices that fails. Trading a player like Hornqvist who I felt should be moved, was moved to the detriment of the team rather the improvement of the team. Moving a player who could still help for an area where you already had personnel capable of providing solid play is a massive failure because a bigger hole was created.
- Rinosaur

Agree here though. You just change that one move and do everything else the same and the team still isn't perfect, but looks a lot better.

Agree here though. You just change that one move and do everything else the same and the team still isn't perfect, but looks a lot better.
- Tojo.

The issue that I keep harping on is lack of scoring. A lot of these contracts providing value are defensive. McCann, ZAR, blue liners, the vet minimum guys we signed. They provide value relative to their contracts, but that’s not going to translate into wins if no one is putting the puck in the net. It’d all be a lot less big of a deal if our one major offensive acquisition that we’re hoping will fill some of the scoring void is one of the few bad value contracts we have.

I kind of see this team going the way of the late-stage Kings after their Cups. All the fancy stats check out and the team seems to have decent enough talent, but not enough pucks are going into the net.

I wonder if we'll see a story here about The Athletic's piece fancy stating the Penguins to be the #3 rated team in contract efficiency. It doesn't fall into the narrative that Rutherford is an awful GM though, so... probably not.
- Hockeywiener

A couple of points: 1) The big 3 are at the end of long-term contracts and were signed before JR got here, and 2) we've got $3.2M in dead money this year (Bjug and JJ). Not a huge amount, but the difference between a good player and a scrub this offseason.

What do we think the Pens PP is gonna look like this year? I’m hoping for the reverse Washington look.

Letang on the half wall
SiD down low
Guentzel in the bumper slot spot
Marino QBing
Geno on the other half wall waiting for the one timer

Sid, Letang, and Guentzel can work that triangle over there or Marino feeds Geno for the one timer.
- j.boyd919

I'd like that setup.